The Econotron Model

An econometric model of the world economy.

Commodity Prices Forecasts


This excel sheet contains quarterly historical data and quarterly forecasts until Q4 2011 for the following 50 commodities:


-Aluminum, LME standard grade, minimum purity, cif UK

-Bananas, avg of Chiquita, Del Monte, Dole, US Gulf delivery

-Barley, Canadian Western No. 1 Spot

-Beef, Australia/New Zealand frozen, U.S. import price

-Coal thermal for export, Australia

-Cocoa, ICO price, cif U.S. & European ports

-Coffee, Other Milds, El Salvdor and Guatemala, ex-dock New York

-Coffee, Robusta, Uganda and Cote dIvoire, ex-dock New York

-Cocoanut Oil, Philippine/Indonesia, cif Rotterdam

-Copper, LME, grade A cathodes, cif Europe

-Cotton, Liverpool Index A, cif Liverpool

-Fishmeal, 64/65 percent, any orig, cif Rotterdam

-Groundnut, US runners, cif European

-Gold Price, US$ per oz

-Hides US, Chicago, fob Shipping Point

-Iron Ore Carajas

-Lamb New Zealand, PL frozen, London price

-Lead LME, 99.97 percent pure, cif European

-Log soft, export from U.S. Pacific coast

-Log hard, Sarawak, import price Japan

-Maize U.S. number 2 yellow, fob Gulf of Mexico

-Nickel LME, melting grade, cif N Europe

-Oil UK Brent, light blend 38 API, fob U.K.

-Oil Dubai, medium, Fateh 32 API, fob Dubai

-Oil West Texas Intermediate, 40 API, Midland Texas

-Olive Oil, less that 1.5% FFA

-Orange Brazilian, CIF France

-Palm Oil Malaysia and Indonesian, cif NW Europe

-Hogs, 51-52% lean, 170-191 lbs IL, IN, OH, MI, KY

-Chicken, Ready-to-cook, whole, iced, FOB Georgia Docks

-Rice 5 percent broken, nominal price quote, fob Bangkok

-Rubber Malaysian, fob Malaysia and Singapore

-Norwegian Fresh Salmon farm bred export price

-Sawnwood dark red meranti, select quality

-Sawnwood average of softwoods, U.S. West coast

-Shrimp U.S., frozen 26/30 count, wholesale NY

-Soybean Meal 44 percent, cif Rotterdam

-Soybean Oil Dutch, fob ex-mill

-Soybean U.S., cif Rotterdam

-Sugar EC import price, cif European

-Sugar International Sugar Agreement price

-Sugar US, import price contract number 14 cif

-Sunflower Oil any origin, ex-tank Rotterdam

-Tea From July 1998,Kenya auctions, Best Pekoe Fannings. Prior, London auctions, c.i.f. -U.K. warehouses

-Tin LME, standard grade, cif European LME, standard grade, cif European

-Uranium, NUEXCO , Restricted Price, US$ per pound

-Wheat U.S. number 1 HRW, fob Gulf of Mexico

-Wool Coarse 23 micron, AWEX

-Wool Fine 19 micron, AWEX

-Zinc LME, high grade, cif UK


Also included ate the following 8 indices:


-Index of Non-Fuel Primary Commodities

-Edibles Index

-Food Index: Cereals, vegetable oils, protein meals, meats, seafood, sugar, bananas and oranges

-Index of Beverages, Coffee, Cocoa, and Tea

-Index of Industrial Inputs

-Index of Agricultural Raw Materials

-Metals index

-Average Petroleum Spot index of UK Brent, Dubai, and West Texas



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